نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار، گروه کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد گرگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
بارش و دما دو عامل اساسی کنترل‌کننده تاریخ کشت و نمو گندم می‌باشند. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر با هدف برآورد هشت متغیر اکوفنولوژیکی شامل تاریخ کشت، تاریخ سبز شدن، تاریخ گل‌دهی، تاریخ رسیدگی و طول هر یک از مراحل رشد گندم دیم در استان گلستان در پنج سطح احتمال وقوع 25، 50، 75، 85 و 95 درصد انجام شد. برای این منظور ابتدا این متغیرها با استفاده از داده‌های روزانه بارش و دمای کمینه و بیشینه 33 ایستگاه هواشناسی برای یک دوره آماری 26 ساله (1395-1370) تعیین شد. سپس مقادیر متغیرهای اکوفنولوژیکی در سطوح احتمال مختلف با تحلیل فراوانی برآورد گردید. به منظور صحت‌سنجی برآورد متغیرهای اکوفنولوژیکی از یافته‌های پژوهش‌های مختلف که در مقیاس مزرعه در استان گلستان انجام شده بود، استفاده گردید که نتایج نشان از دقت قابل قبول برآوردها و نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی داشت. نتایج نشان داد سطح احتمال وقوع بر همه متغیرهای مورد بررسی تأثیر معنی‌دار داشت به گونه‌ای که با افزایش سطح احتمال وقوع، تعویق معنی‌دار تاریخ‌های کشت، سبز شدن، گل‌دهی و رسیدگی، افزایش معنی‌دار طول دوره کشت تا سبز شدن و کاهش معنی‌دار طول مرحله‌های سبز شدن تا گل‌دهی، گل‌دهی تا رسیدگی و کشت تا رسیدگی مشاهده گردید. تاریخ کشت مناسب گندم دیم در 90 درصد وسعت استان گلستان برای سطوح احتمال وقوع 25، 50 و 75 درصد قبل از 20 آذر و در 78 و 90 درصد وسعت استان برای سطوح احتمال وقوع به‌ترتیب 85 و 95 درصد 30-11 آذر و 20-1 دی‌ بود. تاریخ سبز شدن گندم دیم در بیش از 90 درصد وسعت استان گلستان برای سطوح احتمال وقوع 25 تا 95 درصد به‌ترتیب تا 30 آذر، تا 15 دی‌، 30-1 دی، 16 دی تا 15 بهمن و 30-1 بهمن به‌دست‌آمد. نتایج نشان داد که در بیش از 90 درصد وسعت استان تاریخ رسیدگی گندم دیم با احتمال 25 درصد در نیمه اول خرداد، با احتمال 50 درصد در ماه خرداد، با احتمال 75 درصد در نیمه دوم خرداد و با احتمال 85  و 95 درصد در نیمه دوم خرداد تا نیمه اول تیر اتفاق می‌افتد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Stochastical Analysis of Phenological Timing Traits of Rainfed Wheat in Golestan Province Using Climate Parameters

نویسنده [English]

  • kami kaboosi

Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Department of Agriculture, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Abstract
 
Background and Objectives
Considerng stochasticalnature of precipitation and temperature and high dependence of the eco-phenological timing traits on them, the present study was conducted with the aim of estimating eight eco-phenological traits of rainfed wheat including planting date, emergence date, flowering date, maturity date and length of each stage of growth in Golestan province.
 
Materials and Methods
First, studied traits were determined by daily data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation of 33 meteorological stations in the 26-year common statistical period (1991-2016). Then, these traits were calculated based on frequency analysis by SMADA software package for 25, 50, 75, 85 and 95 percent occurrence probability level. Planting date was determined based on the first precipitation equal to or more than 25 mm over a period of 10 consecutive days in December. Also, length of each growth stages was determined based on the concept of Growing Degree-Days (GDD). Finally, zoning maps of eco-phenological traits for different occurrence probability level were produced by ArcGIS software. In order to verify estimated eco-phenological traits values, findings from various field scale researches in Golestan province were used. The results showed that estimations and zoning maps wrere done with good precision.
 
Results
The results showed that the effect of occurrence probability level was significant on all variables, so that with increasing occurrence probability level several important changes were observed: first, a significant postponement of dates of planting, emergence, flowering and maturity; second, a significant increase in the length of planting to emergence; and finally, a significant reduction in the length of the emergence to flowering, flowering to maturity and planting to maturity stages. Zoning maps showed that the suitable planting date for rainfed wheat in 90 percent of Golestan province area for occurrence probability levels of 25, 50 and 75 percent was before 10 December and for 85 and 95 percent occurrence probability levels in 78 and 90 percent of the province area was from 1-20 December and 21 December to  9 January, respectively. Emergence date of rainfed wheat in more than 90 percent of the Golestan province area for the occurrence probability levels of 25 to 95 percent was calculated until 20 December, until 4 January, 21 December to 19 January, 5 January to 3 February and 20 January to 18 February, respectively. Also, flowering date of rainfed wheat was obtained 4 April to 4 May in 95 percent of the province's area for 25 percent occurrence probability level, 5-20 May in 86 percent of the province's area for 50 percent occurrence probability level, 20 April to 20 May in 95 percent of the province's area for 75 percent occurrence probability level, 5-20 May in 75 percent of the province's area for 85 percent occurrence probability level, and 5 May to 4 June in 93 percent of the province's area for 95 percent occurrence probability level. In terms of maturity date, the results showed that this date in more than 90 percent of the Golestan province's area was 21 May to 4 June for 25 percent occurrence probability level, 21 May to 20 June for 50 percent occurrence probability level, 5-20 June for 75 percent occurrence probability level, and 5 June to 5 July for 85 and 95 percent occurrence probability levels.
 
Discussion
Based on the average of all weather stations, the increase in occurrence probability level from 25 to 95 percent (risk reduction from 75 to 5 percent) delays the suitable planting date, dates of germination, flowering, and maturity of rainfed wheat by 37, 56, 35 and 28 days, respectively. It also increases the length of planting to germination stage by 19 days while decreases the length of germination to flowering, flowering to maturity stages, and total season by 22, 8 and 10 days, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Occurrence probability
  • Planting date
  • Precipitation
  • Temperature
References
Abbasi, F., Ehteramian, K., Khazanedari, L., Mohammadnia Gharaei, Sh. and Asmari, M. (2015). Locating the most suitable dry land wheat areas (North Khorasan province). Journal of Climate Research, 4(13), 57-72. [In Farsi]
Ahmadali, Kh., Hosseini Pajouh, N. and Liaghat, A. M. (2016). Determination of optimal planting date of rainfed wheat in Kurdistan province, Iran. Agronomy Journal (Pajouhesh & Sazandegi), 28(4), 9-18. [In Farsi]
Ahmadamini, T., Kamkar, B. and Soltani, A. (2011). The effect of planting date on partitoning coefficient in some species of wheat. Crop Production, 4(1), 131-150. [In Farsi] 
Ahmadi, M., Kamkar, B. Soltani, A., Zeinali, E. and Arabameri, R. (2010). The effect of planting date on duration of phonological phases in wheat cultivars and it's relation with grain yield. Journal of Plant Production Researches, 17(2), 109-122. [In Farsi]
Amiri, A., Tohidi Nejad, E., Javaheri, M. A. and Mohamadi Nejad, Q. (2010). Study the effect of planting time, cultivar and azetobacter on wheat yield at Bardsir region. Journal of Crops Improvement, 12(1), 11-19. [In Farsi]
Andarzian, B., Hoogenboom, G., Bannayan, M., Shirali, M. and Andarzian, B. (2015). Determining optimum sowing date of wheat using CSM-CERES-Wheat model. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, 14(2), 189-199.
Asadnezhad, M., Farzaneh, M. and Meskarbashee, M. (2017). Planting date effect on yield and yield component of three wheat cultivars in competitive with wild oat. Plant Productions, 40(1), 55-68. [In Farsi]
Ashena, M., Kafi, M., Jafarnejad, A. and Sharifi, H. R. (2015). Evaluation of planting date and nitrogen effects on the development stages of wheat cultivars and their relationship with yield and yield components in Nishabur. Crop Production, 8(4), 143-162. [In Farsi]
Avareh Shirazi, R., Nabipoor, M. and Meskarbashi, M. (2012). Comparison of sowing and wheat seedling planting and its influence on yield and yield components. Plant Productions, 35(1), 91-101. [In Farsi]
Baygi, Z., Saifzadeh, S., Shirani Rad, A. H. Valadabadi, S. and Jafarinejad, A. (2017). Effects of planting date on growth indices and yield and yield components of some wheat cultivars in Neshabur. Applied Research in Field Crops, 30(2), 1-18. [In Farsi]
Bazgeer, S., Kamali, Gh. and Mortazavi, A. (2007). Wheat yield prediction through agrometeorological indices for Hamedan, Iran. Biaban (Desert Journal), 12(1), 33-38.
Bussmann, A., Elagib, N. A. Fayyad, M. and Ribbe, L. (2016). Sowing date determinants for Sahelian rainfed agriculture in the context of agricultural policies and water management. Land Use Policy, 52 316-328.
Dastmalchi, A., Soltani, A. Latifi, N. and Zeinali, E. (2012). Evaluation of CropSyst-Wheat for simulating of development, growth and yield in response to planting date. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research, 10(3), 511-521. [In Farsi]
Dogonchi, A., Biabani, A., Sabori, H., Gholizadeh, A., Mohamad Esmaeili, M., Roumani, A. and Jafarzadeh, M. R. (2015). The effect of different levels of zeolite, urea fertilizer and azospirillum bacteria on yield and yield components of bread wheat. Research Achievement for Improvement Crop Production, 1(1), 41-54. [In Farsi]
Farajee, H., Godarzi, A., Owliaiee, H. and Azimi Gandomani, M. (2013). Yield of assessraent some wheat cultivars to planting date in noorabad mammasani. Plant Productions, 35(4), 29-42. [In Farsi]
Feyzbakhsh, M. T. and Soqi, H. (2017). Evaluating the response of yield and yield components of bread wheat genotypes to normal and late seeding dates. Applied Research in Field Crops, 30(1), 64-82 [In Farsi]
Kaboosi, K. and Majidi, O. (2017a). Agro-ecological zoning of rainfed wheat in Golestan province based on meteorology, agronomy, soil and land properties. Journal of Agroecology, 7(2), 134-154. [In Farsi]
Kaboosi, K. and Majidi, O. (2017b). Zoning of planting and harvesting dates and length of growth stages of rainfed wheat based on precipitation and temperature data in Golestan province. Iranian Journal of Dryland Agriculture, 6(1), 103-120. [In Farsi]
Kalateh Arabi, M., Sheikh, F., Soqi, H. and Hivehchie, J. (2011). Effects of sowing date on grain yield and its components of two bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in Gorgan in Iran. Seed and Plant Production Journal, 27(3), 285-296. [In Farsi]
Kamali, Gh., Mollaei, P. and Behyar, M. B. (2010). Development of Zanjan province dry land wheat atlas by using climatic data and GIS. Water and Soil, 24(5), 894-907. [In Farsi]
Kamali, Gh., Sadaghiani Poor, A. and Sedaghatkerdar, A. (2008). The climatic zoning of dryland wheat in Eastern Azerbaijan. Journal of Water and Soil, 22(2), 467-483. [In Farsi]
Khoshal Dastjerdi, J., Nazari, A., Ghangharmeh, A. and Fallahi, H. A. (2015). Predicting isometropia- rainfall in dry wheat implantation and cultivation in Gonbad Kavoos province. Geographical Planning of Space, 5(16), 169-184. [In Farsi]
Mahru, A. H., Soltani, A. Galeshi, S. and Kalate-Arabi, M. (2011). Estimates of genetic coefficients and evaluation of model DSSAT for Golestan province. Crop Production, 3(2), 229-253. [In Farsi]
Mohammadi, H. (2005). The determining suitable dry farming wheat time in Ilam provience. Geographical Research, 37(51), 15-31. [In Farsi]
Nazeri, M. (2017). Study on bread wheat cultivar developmental stages and canopy temperature depression changing at environmental conditions due to different sowing dates. Applied Research in Field Crops, 30(1), 18-29. [In Farsi]
Nekahi, M. Z., Soltani, A., Siahmarguee, A. and Bagherani, N. (2014). Yield gap associated with crop management in wheat (case study: Golestan province- Bandargaz). Crop Production, 7(2), 135-156. [In Farsi]
Nikbakht, J. and Mir Latifi, S. M. (2002). Effects of ET0 computing method, probability level and length of peak water requirement period on daily reference evapotranspiration. Iranian Journal of Soil and Waters Sciences, 16(2), 222-230. [In Farsi]
Noohi, K. (2005). Rainfall analysis of Karaj for determination of rainfed wheat sowing date. Nivar, , 30(58), 95-103. [In Farsi]
Rahemi Karizaki, A., Galeshi, S. and Soltani, A. (2015). Evaluation of improvement of rate and duration of grain filling duration inbreeding processes in wheat cultivars. Journal of Plant Production Researches, 22(1), 23-38. [In Farsi]
Salehi, M. and Mosavat, S. A. (2012). Selection criteria of wheat genotypes under salt stress in Golestan province. Crop Production, 1(4), 19-33. [In Farsi]
Shahbazi, M., Kalateh Arabi, M. and Hasani Far, A. (2010). Study of Iranian landraces wheat in salt-affected soils of Golestan province. Iranian Journal of Field Crop Science, 41(3), 447-458. [In Farsi]
Soughi, H., Karimi, A. and Sohrabi, A. (2016). Comparison of bead wheat promising lines in farmers conditions of Aliabad region in Golestan province. Research Achievement for Improvement Crop Production, 1(2), 31-38. [In Farsi]
Torabi, B., Soltani, A., Galeshi, S. and Zeinali, E. (2012). Documenting the process of wheat production in Gorgan. Journal of Plant Production Researches, 19(4), 19-42. [In Farsi]
Valipoor, M., Aynehbabd, A. and Fateh, E. (2010). The effect of planting dates and different N-P-K ratios on grain yield and N use efficiency in wheat in Ahvaz. Plant Productions, 33(1), 33-47. [In Farsi]
Yousefi Moghaddam, R., Khoramdel, S., Bannayan Aval, M. and Nassiri Mahallati, M. (2018). Comparison of
old and new dryland wheat cultivars in response to different planting dates. Applied Research in Field Crops, 31(2), 46-72 [In Farsi]
Yousefidaz, M., Soltani, A., Galeshi, S. and Zeinali, E. (2015). Optimization of the nitrogen fertilizer management of wheat in Gorgan: Rate and time of nitrogen application. Crop Production, 7(4), 81-102. [In Farsi]
 
 © 2020 by the authors. Licensee SCU, Ahvaz, Iran. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0 license) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)